Mon, 06 Apr 2009 00:42 UTC
Not much substantive news was expected to come out of the G-20 meetings that ended on April 2 in London - certainly no good news was even suggested. Europe, China and the United States had too deeply distinct interests. American diplomats wanted to lock foreign countries into further dependency on paper dollars.
The rest of the world sought a way to avoid giving up real output and ownership of their resources and enterprises for yet more hot-potato dollars. In such cases one expects a parade of smiling faces and statements of mutual respect for each others' position - so much respect that they have agreed to set up a "study group" or two to kick the diplomatic ball down the road.
The least irrelevant news was not good at all: The attendees agreed to quadruple IMF funding to $1 trillion. Anything that bolsters IMF authority cannot be good for countries forced to submit to its austerity plans.
They are designed to squeeze out more money to pay the world's most predatory creditors. So in practice this G-20 agreement means that the world's leading governments are responding to today's financial crisis with "planned shrinkage" for debtors - a 10 per cent cut in wage payments in hapless Latvia, Hungary put on rations, and permanent debt peonage for Iceland for starters.
This is quite a contrast with the United States, which is responding to the downturn with a giant Keynesian deficit spending program, despite its glaringly unpayable $4 trillion debt to foreign central banks.
So the international financial system's double standard remains alive and kicking - at least, kicking countries that are down or are falling. Debtor countries must borrow a trillion from the IMF not to revive their own faltering economies, not to pursue counter-cyclical policies to restore market demand (that is only for creditor nations), but to pass on the IMF "aid" to the poisonous banks that have made the irresponsible toxic loans. (If these are toxic, who put in the toxin? To claim that it was all the "natural" workings of the marketplace is to say that free markets curdle and sicken. Is this what is happening?)
In Ukraine, a physical fight broke out in Parliament when the Party of Regions blocked an agreement with the IMF calling for government budget cutbacks. And rightly so! The IMF's operating philosophy is the destructive (indeed, toxic) belief that imposing a deeper depression with more unemployment will reduce wage levels and living standards by enough to pay debts already at unsustainable levels, thanks to the kleptocracy's tax "avoidance" and capital flight. The IMF trillion-dollar bailout is actually for these large international banks, so that they will be able to take their money and run. The problem is all being blamed on labor. That is the neo-Malthusian spirit of today's neoliberalism.
The main beneficiaries of IMF lending to Latvia, for example, have been the Swedish banks that have spent the last decade funding that country's real estate bubble while doing nothing to help develop an industrial potential. Latvia has paid for its imports by exporting its male labor of prime working age, acting as a vehicle for Russian capital flight - and borrowing mortgage purchase-money in foreign currency. To pay these debts rather than default, Latvia will have to lower wages in its public sector by 10 per cent -- and this with an economy already depressed and that the government expects to shrink by 12 percent this year!
To save the banks from losing on their toxic mortgages, the IMF is bailing them out, and directing the Latvian government to squeeze labor all the more - and to charge for education rather than providing it freely. The idea is for families to take a lifetime of debt not only to live inside rather than on the sidewalk, but to get an education. Alcoholism rates are rising, as they did in Russia under similar circumstances in Yeltsin's "Harvard Boys" kleptocracy after 1996.
The insolvency problem of the post-Soviet economies is not entirely the IMF's fault, to be sure. The European Community deserves a great deal of blame. Instead of viewing the post-Soviet economies as wards to be brought up to speed with Western Europe, the last thing the EU wanted was to develop potential rivals. It wanted customers - not only for its exports, but most of all for its loans. The Baltic States passed into the Scandinavian sphere, while Austrian banks carved out financial spheres of influence in Hungary (and lost their shirt on real estate loans, much as the Habsburgs and Rothschilds did in times past). Iceland was neoliberalized, largely in ripoffs organized by German banks and British financial sharpies.
In fact, Iceland ( where I'm writing these lines) looks like a controlled experiment - a very cruel one - as to how deeply an economy can be "financialized" and how long its population will submit voluntarily to predatory financial behavior. If the attack were military, it would spur a more alert response. The trick is to keep the population from understanding the financial dynamics at work and the underlying fraudulent character of the debts with which it has been saddled - with the complicit aid of its own local oligarchy.
In today's world, the easiest way to obtain wealth by old-fashioned "primitive accumulation" is by financial manipulation. This is the essence of the Washington Consensus that the G-20 support, using the IMF in its usual role as enforcer. The G-20's announcement continues the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve bank bailout over the past half-year. In a nutshell, the solution to a debt crisis is to be yet more debt. If debtors can't pay out of what they are able to earn, lend them enough to keep current on their carrying charges. Collateralize this with their property, their public domain, their political autonomy - their democracy itself. The aim is to keep the debt overhead in place. This can be done only by keeping the volume of debts growing exponentially as they accrue interest, which is added onto the loan. This is the "magic of compound interest." It is what turns entire economies into Ponzi schemes (or Madoff schemes as they are now called).
This is "equilibrium", neoliberal style. In addition to paying an exorbitant basic interest rate, homeowners must pay a special 18 per cent indexation charge on their debts to reflect the inflation rate (the consumer price index) so that creditors will not lose the purchasing power over consumer goods. Labor's wages are not indexed, so defaults are spreading and the country is being torn apart with bankruptcy, causing the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. The IMF approves, announcing that it can find no reason why homeowners cannot bear this burden!
Meanwhile, democracy is being torn apart by a financial oligarchy, whose interests have become increasingly cosmopolitan, looking at the economy as prey to be looted. A new term is emerging: "codfish republic" (known further south as banana republics). Many of Iceland's billionaires these days are choosing to join their Russian counterparts living in London - and the Russian gangsters are reciprocating by visiting Iceland even in the dead of winter, ostensibly merely to enjoy its warm volcanic Blue Lagoon, or so the press is told.
The alternative is for debtor countries to suffer the same kind of economic sanctions as Iran, Cuba and pre-invasion Iraq. Perhaps soon there will be enough such economies to establish a common trading area among themselves, possibly along with Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil. But as far as the G-20 is concerned, aid to Iceland and "doing the right thing" is simply a bargaining chip in the international diplomatic game. Russia offered $4 billion aid to Iceland, but retracted it - presumably when Britain gave it a plum as a tradeoff.
The IMF's $1 trillion won't help the post-Soviet and Third World debtor countries pay their foreign debts, especially their real estate mortgages denominated in foreign currency. This practice has violated the First Law of national fiscal prudence: Only permit debts to be taken on that are in the same currency as the income that is expected to be earned to pay them off. If central bankers really sought to protect currency stability, they would insist on this rule. Instead, they act as shills for the international banks, as disloyal to the actual economic welfare of their countries as expatriate oligarchs.
If you are going to recommend more of this consensus, then the only way to sell it is to do what British Prime Minister Gordon Brown did at the meetings: announce that "The Washington Consensus is dead." (He might have saved matters by saying "deadly," but used the adjective instead of the adverb.) But the G-20's IMF bailout belies this claim. As Turkey was closing out its loan last year, the IMF faced a world with no customers. Nobody wanted to submit to its destructive "conditionalities," anti-labor policies designed to shrink the domestic market in the false assumption that this "frees" more output for export rather than being consumed at home. In reality, the effect of austerity is to discourage domestic investment, and hence employment. Economies submitting to the IMF's "Washington Consensus" become more and more dependent on their foreign creditors and suppliers.
The United States and Britain would never follow such conditionalities. That is why the United States has not permitted an IMF advisory team to write up its prescription for U.S. "stability." The Washington Consensus is only for export. ("Do as we say, not as we do.") Mr. Obama's stimulus program is Keynesian, not an austerity plan, despite the fact that the United States is the world's largest debtor.
Here's why the situation is unsustainable. What has enabled the Baltics and other post-Soviet countries to cover the foreign-exchange costs of their trade dependency and capital flight has been their real estate bubble. The neoliberal idea of financial "equilibrium" has been to watch "market forces" shorten lifespans, demolish what industrial potential they had, increase emigration and disease, and run up an enormous foreign debt with no visible way of earning the money to pay it off. This real estate bubble credit was extractive and parasitic, not productive. Yet the World Bank applauds the Baltics as a success story, ranking them near the top of nations in terms of "ease of doing business."
One practical fact trumps all the junk economics at work from the IMF and G-20: Debts that can't be paid, won't be. Adam Smith observed in The Wealth of Nations that no government in history had ever repaid its national debt. Today, the same may be said of the public sector as well. This poses a problem of just how these debtor countries are not going to pay their foreign and domestic debts. How will they frame and politicize their non-payment?
Creditors know that these debts can't be paid. (I say this as former balance-of-payments analyst of Third World debt for nearly fifty years, from Chase Manhattan in the 1960s through the United Nations Institute for Training and Research [UNITAR] in the 1970s, to Scudder Stevens & Clark in 1990, where I started the first Third World sovereign debt fund.) From the creditor's vantage point, knowing that the Great Neoliberal Bubble is over, the trick is to deter debtor countries from acting to resolve its collapse in a way that benefits themselves. The aim is to take as much as possible - and to get the IMF and central banks to bail out the poisonous banks that have loaded these countries down with toxic debt. Grab what you can while the grabbing is good. And demand that debtors do what Latin American and other third World countries have been doing since the 1980s: sell off their public domain and public enterprises at distress prices. That way, the international banks not only will get paid, they will get new business lending to the buyers of the assets being privatized - on the usual highly debt-leveraged terms!
The preferred tactic do deter debtor countries from acting in their self-interest is to pound on the old morality, "A debt is a debt, and must be paid." That is what Herbert Hoover said of the Inter-Ally debts owed by Britain, France and other allies of the United States in World War I. These debts led to the Great Depression. "We loaned them the money, didn't we?" he said curtly.
Let's look more closely at the moral argument. Living in New York, I find an excellent model in that state's Law of Fraudulent Conveyance. Enacted when the state was still a colony, it was enacted in response British speculators making loans to upstate farmers, and demanding payment just before the harvest was in, when the debtors could not pay. The sharpies then foreclosed, getting the land on the cheap. So New York's Fraudulent Conveyance law responded by establishing the legal principle that if a creditor makes a loan without having a clear and reasonable understanding of how the debtor can repay the money in the normal course of doing business, the loan is deemed to be predatory and therefore null and void.
Just like the post-Soviet economies, Iceland was sold a neoliberal bill of goods: a self-destructive Junk Economics. Just how moral a responsibility - and perhaps even more important, how large a legal liability - should fall on the IMF and World Bank, the U.S. Treasury and Bank of England whose economies and banks benefited from this toxic Washington Consensus junk economics?
For me, the moral principle is that no country should be subjected to debt peonage. That is the opposite of democratic self-determination, after all - and of Enlightenment moral philosophy that economic policies should encourage economic growth, not shrinkage. They should promote greater economic equality, not polarization between wealthy creditors and impoverished debtors.
At issue is just what a "free market" is. It's supposed to be one of choice. Indebted countries lose discretionary choice over their economic future. Their economic surplus is pledged abroad as financial tribute. Without the overhead costs of a military occupation, they are relinquishing their policy making from democratically elected political representatives to bureaucratic financial managers, often foreign - the new Central Planners in today's neoliberal world. The best they can do, knowing the game is over, is to hope that the other side doesn't realize it - and to do everything you can to confuse debtor countries while extracting as much as they can as fast as they can.
Will the trick work? Maybe not. While the G-20 meetings were taking place, Korea was refusing to let itself be victimized by the junk derivatives contracts that foreign banks sold. Korea is claiming that bankers have a fiduciary responsibility to their customers to recommend loans that help them, not strip them of money. There is a tacit understanding (one that the financial sector spends millions of dollars in public relations efforts to undermine) that banking is a public utility. It is supposed to be a handmaiden to growth - industrial and agricultural growth and self-sufficiency - not predatory, extractive and hence anti-social. So Korean victims of junk derivatives are suing the banks. As New York Times commentator Floyd Norris described last week, the legal situation doesn't look good for the international banks. The home court always has an advantage, and every nation is sovereign, able to pass whatever laws it wants. (And as America's case abundantly illustrates, judges need not be unbiased.)
The post-Soviet economies as well as Latin America must be watching attentively the path that Korea is clearing through international courts. The nightmare of international bankers is that these countries may bring the equivalent of a class action suit against the international diplomatic coercion mounted against these countries to lead them down the path of financial and economic suicide. "The Seoul Central District Court justified its decision [to admit the lawsuit] on the kind of logic that would apply in the United States to a lawsuit involving an unsophisticated individual investor and a fast-taking broker. The court pointed to questions of whether the contract was a suitable investment for the company, and to whether the risks were fully disclosed. The judgment also referred to the legal concept of "changed circumstances," concluding that the parties had expected the exchange rate to remain stable, that the change in circumstances was unforeseeable and that the losses would be too great for the company to bear."
As a second cause of action, Korea is claiming that the banks provided creditor for other financial institutions to bet against the very contracts the banks were selling Korea to "protect" its interests. So the banks knew that what they were selling was a time bomb, and therefore seem guilty of conflict of interest. Banks claim that they merely were selling goods with no warranty to "informed individuals." But the Korean parties in question were no more informed than were Iceland's debtors. If a bank seeks to mislead and does not provide full disclosure, its victim cannot be said to be "informed." The proper English word is misinformed (viz. disinformation).
Speaking of disinformation, an important issue concerns the extent to which the big international banks may have conspired with domestic bankers and corporate managers to loot their companies. This is what corporate raiders have done for their junk-bond holders since the high tide of Drexel Burnham and Michael Milken in the 1980s. This would make the banks partners in crime. There needs to be an investigation of the lending pattern that these banks engaged in - including their aid in organizing offshore money laundering and tax evasion to their customers. No wonder the IMF and British bankers are demanding that Iceland make up its mind in a hurry, and commit itself to pay astronomical debts without taking the time to ask just how they are to pay - and investigating the creditor banks' overall lending pattern!
Bearing the above in mind, I suppose I can tell Icelandic politicians that I have good news regarding the fate of their country's foreign and domestic debt: No nation ever has paid its debts. As I noted above, this means that the real question is not whether or not they will be paid, but how not to pay these debts. How will the game play out - in the political sphere, in popular ideology, and in the courts at home and abroad?
The question is whether Iceland will let bankruptcy tear apart its economy slowly, transferring property from debtors to creditors, from Icelandic citizens to foreigners, and from the public domain and national taxing power to the international financial class. Or, will Iceland see where the inherent mathematics of debt are leading, and draw the line? At what point will it say "We won't pay. These debts are immoral, uneconomic and anti-democratic." Do they want to continue the fight by Enlightenment and Progressive Era social democracy, or the alternative - a lapse back into neofeudal debt peonage?
This is the choice must be made. And it is largely a question of timing. That's what the financial sector plays for - time enough to transfer as much property as it can into the hands of the banks and other investors. That's what the IMF advises debtor countries to do - except of course for the United States as largest debtor of all. This is the underlying lawless character of today's post-bubble debts.
modal dan "pemain" IMF memang banyak dari pemodal raksasa, tp menurut cerita mantan pegawai IMF. di IMF sendiri masih banyak orang yg memiliki semangat untuk membantu perekonomian dunia. kita juga jangan lupa berbagai pembangunan yg berasal dari pinjaman IMF di Indonesia, mulai dari kredit perumahan sampai infrastruktur2. dan itu semua tentu merupakan deal kedua belah pihak (kreditur maupun debitur).
apakah kebijakan yg ditawarkan IMF ada yg salah? tentu ada. dan tidak sedikit, bahkan ekonom seterkemuka Alan Greenspan saja banyak salah nya. dan banyak kesalahan2 yg seperti di kritik Mazhab Austrian, Rothbard dkk. perekonomian tidak bisa di math kan. jadi lebih ke pendekatan kualitatif daripada kuantitatif.
salah satu kebijakan IMF yg menurut saya baik, adalah mengenai pengurangan subsidi serta privatisasi BUMN yg tidak effesien, serta melepas kurs menjadi floating (era Indonesia dihantam krismon).
salah satu pengkritik IMF paling terkemuka adalah Stiglitz namun dia jg mantan pegawai IMF, jd setidaknya kita tau bahwa di dalam tubuh IMF sendiri masih banyak pegawai2 yg memiliki idealism membangun perekonmian dunia bukan hanya mencari keuntungan.
klo pendapat pribadi saya, kita ga perlu alergi dengan lembaga finance manapun. cukup lihat kontrak. klo memang ada value added yg pantas, ya monggo...
PART I - Who Makes Our Money?
Here are 2 different $100 Bills. One has a red seal, the other a green seal.
Notice the top of this bill. It says United States Note. That means it is a note issued by the United States.
Now notice the top of this bill. It says Federal Reserve Note.
That means it is a note issued by the Federal Reserve.
It is NOT issued by the United States at all.
Well, who is the Federal Reserve?
Aren't they part of the government you might ask?
The answer to that is NO.
The Federal Reserve is a private company, just like Federal Express. And it is no more federal than Federal Express is.
Now both of these $100 Bills cost 4 cents to produce. In the old days the govt would simply print up a red seal $100 United States Note for 4 cents and spend the money on something it wanted.
Today, the Federal Reserve gets to produce the $100 Bill for 4 cents and then sells the $100 Federal Reserve Note to the US Government for $100 Face Amount.
That bears repeating. The Federal Reserve (a private company) gets to produce slips of paper for 4 cents ($100 Bills) and then sells those pieces of paper to the US Govt for $100 Face Amount.
Now since the government doesn't have any money of its own how does it buy these Federal Reserve Notes? It pays for them with debt: Treasury Bonds, Treasury Notes, & Treasury Bills.
If you read the paper or listen to the nightly news you'll hear the media say things like "The Fed injected liquidity into the markets..." or "The Fed is buying government securities..." All this means is that the Federal Reserve is literally creating money out of thin air and then selling this money to our government for its face amount.
This is the true source of our National debt, and this is the reason our debt never goes down.
If you read an economics book this will be covered under the term "Monetization of government debt."
Now some of you might be saying, "Why should I care about any of this?" I'll tell you why.
You know all that income tax that comes out of your paycheck every week? Well your money is paying for this. Your income tax dollars do not pay for things like you think.
The personal income tax does not pay for the military, roads, schools, or anything like that. It simply pays for the federal reserve notes with the green seal. In fact both the income tax and Federal Reserve were created in the same year - 1913. The income tax was created to finance the federal reserve.
Okay, pretty crazy right? Why in the world would our government pay a private bank for money, and then tax it's own citizens to pay for it, when we could just issue the money ourself practically for free? There is a reason, and we'll touch on it later. Right now we're going to explain the next part.
PART II - How Money Comes Into Existence
This part explains why we have booms and busts in the economy.
We now know that the government buys it's money from the private company called the Federal Reserve. And we know that the government pays for the money by issuing government debt.
Because of this, the government doesn't even own it's own money, it only rents it.
(A $100 United States Note issued in 1966 only costs America 4 cents. While a $100 Federal Reserve Note issued in 1966 costs America $100 + $5 a year in interest for a total of $315.00)
When the government buys one dollar from the federal reserve
The government automatically owes that dollar PLUS 5 cents in interest.
The problem with this is that although the dollar is created, the extra 5 cents in interest is NOT created. This means there is not enough money in the economy for the government to pay back it's debt. After awhile it's not even possible for the government to pay the interest on it's debt unless the money supply is increased.
So out of necessity, the federal reserve & government will start a program of expanding the supply of money. The federal reserve will create more money to push down interest rates and the government will take on more debt to buy more of this money.
This causes malinvestment, which means:
People are encouraged to make wrong decisions because of false signals they are receiving from the marketplace. Businesses will tend to over expand when they shouldn't and over produce certain goods. (build too many houses for example.) Consumers will feel richer and so will wind up buying more cars, homes, etc. when they really cannot afford to.
This is where programs like the Community Reinvestment Act come into play as well as agencies like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, etc. Anything that encourages expansion of the money supply (like people borrowing to buy homes) will be done, and it doesn't matter whether the Republicans or Democrats are in power. They know they need to keep the supply of money growing. If they don't then this whole unstable system comes crashing down.
But since this system of money IS unstable it has to come crashing down anyway: Eventually the areas in which this money is put will form a "Bubble". It might be a Stock Market bubble or a real estate bubble, just to name a few. Eventually these bubbles will burst because they have been artificially created and are unsustainable. Inflationary booms are always followed by deflationary busts as a normal cleansing mechanism of the marketplace.
Now while this bubble is happening, the government can step in through taxation and confiscation and grab enough dollars to pay for the interest on its debt. (Income Tax).
When the stock market bubble burst, they replaced it with an even bigger real estate bubble. Now that the real estate bubble is bursting they are trying to replace it with an even bigger "bond market/dollar bubble".
The dollar bubble being formed now IS inflation, and will result in prices going up for everything. But like all bubbles, the dollar bubble will eventually burst and when it does the value of the dollar will be destroyed.
PART III - Inflation is a Tax (And that's all it is)
Okay, so far we have talked about two types of money, United States Notes and Federal Reserve Notes. But I have to be honest. Neither of those are actually money, they are only currency.
Here's the difference.
In 1950, you could buy 4 gallons of gasoline for ONE DOLLAR.
A paper dollar bought 4 gallons of gasoline.
A silver dollar bought 4 gallons of gasoline.
Now let's fast foward to 2009
A paper dollar will NOT buy you 4 gallons of gasoline.
You cant even buy ONE gallon of gasoline with it.
But a silver dollar will still buy you 4 gallons of gasoline.
(The silver content is always worth the price of 4 gallons of gasoline.)
In this picture the price of oil is calculated from the year 2000 and priced in Dollars, Euros, and Gold. In dollars, the price of oil went up 350%, in euros it went up 200%, but in terms of gold it didn't go up in price at all.
Why do commodities like gasoline and oil not go up in price when priced in either gold or silver?
Answer: Gold & Silver are real money. They have intrinsic value. Gold and silver cannot be printed out of thin air the way paper dollars can, and so they retain their value.
When the federal reserve prints paper dollars and sells them to our government, the government is able to go out and buy whatever it wants at current market prices.
But as that money circulates throughout the economy, the increase in paper dollars causes prices to rise. By the time the money gets to you and me,the price of a loaf of bread or a gallon of milk has already gone up. This is how inflation taxes us.
The government who gets to use the newly made money first, steals our purchasing power through inflation. The end result is that we are taxed without even knowing it. But we all know we work harder and harder just to get the same things in life we had before.
That is the invisible inflation tax in a nutshell. This tax affects middle class and poor people the most. And it is the reason we hear people say "The rich get richer, while the poor get poorer."
If we used gold or silver money, the gov't would be stopped from stealing our purchasing power through inflation.
Why don't we use gold and silver for money anymore? We're supposed to. It's the law.
The United States Constitution: Article I, Section 10.
No state shall enter into any treaty, alliance, or confederation; grant letters of marque and reprisal; coin money; emit bills of credit; make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts; pass any bill of attainder, ex post facto law, or law impairing the obligation of contracts, or grant any title of nobility.
The founding fathers experienced massive hyperinflation during the Revolutionary War where the only way the country had to raise revenue was by printing paper money. Imagine having a pickup truck filled with paper money, scarcely being able to buy enough groceries to fill up your truck. It's happened before in America.
A wagon load of money will scarcely purchase a wagon load of provisions. - George Washington, 1779.
Now this doesn't mean we have to walk around with bags of gold and silver. We can still use paper money, checks, debit cards, and electronic banking that is backed by silver and gold.
Let's take a look at how our $100 Bill is supposed to look. Unlike "Notes" which are not real money, "Certificates" are indeed real money because they are redeemable for the actual gold or silver at any time.
(IMAGES OF MONEY OMITTED BECAUSE OF FORUM SOFTWARE RESTRICTIONS)
PART IV - Why Does Our Government Do This?
Earlier, I told you I would explain why the government does this. And the answer is because it makes it easier for politicians to get re-elected.
Under our Constitution and a sound money system like a gold standard, the government would have to tax the citizens with what's called a direct tax.
Let's say the government wants to spend money on some programs and it's going to cost $300 Billion more than they are going to take in, in revenue. That means they are going to run a deficit of $300 Billion. With roughly 300 million citizens in America that results in a cost of $1,000 per man, woman and child. So now you get a knock on your door from a tax collector and are told that your family of 4 will have to immediately pay the government $4,000 in a direct tax so the government can spend money on these programs. What would you do? You would call up your congressman and *****. You would tell him that if he doesn't fix the problem he will be out of a job.
You would take an active role in politics, and that's the last thing politicians want. They just want to get re-elected without all the hassle. So instead of taxing you honestly, they purchase money from the federal reserve, make our national debt go up, and devalue our money through inflation. And since the effects of inflation are delayed anywhere from between 6 months to 2 years, by the time gasoline or food prices go up, it can be blamed on war, greedy arabs, or bad weather, and the politician [and federal reserve] can escape the blame, even though they are the ones responsible. So the next time you hear that oil prices are higher because of a hurricane; remember it's not true.
PART V - How Do We Fix The Economy?
We got into this mess because we over spent, over borrowed, and over consumed.
So we need to do the opposite, which is save our money, pay back debt, and not consume as much.
But wait, I hear some of you say consumption is good for the economy. The nightly news tells us that the American economy is 2/3 driven by consumer spending. However, that is just another fallacy.
Production is the true measure of an economy not consumption. Anybody can eat an ear of corn, but before you can eat the corn, somebody had to grow it. Anybody can buy a new pair of jeans, but before you can buy them, somebody had to make the jeans. Somebody always has to produce before some other person can consume. And saving and spending work the same way. You have to earn and save your money before you can buy things. Here are two "fancy" economic terms and my common sense definitions for each. You should make sure you understand these because you will hear them more as the economy worsens:
Keynesian Economics: Economic theory that basically says, "Spend all the money you have. When you run out of money, borrow all you can and spend that too. When nobody will loan you anymore money, just print the money and keep spending." This is the policy our government follows. The gov't spent all our money, borrowed all we can from other countries, so now the final resort is printing even more money (and paying the federal reserve even more)
Austrian Economics: Economic theory that basically says, "If you want to buy something, make sure you have the money first. If you don't have the money then save up your money, and when you have enough, buy what you want. Pay your credit card balances in full every month and only go into debt if it's an emergency.
We need to let the free market function. Let the depression happen. If we let it happen, it will be over in about a year.
If we drag it out with spending plan after spending plan the depression will last for 10 years or more. Everybody has heard of the depression of 1929, but most people never hear about the depression of 1920-1921, which was actually worse. The difference was, in 1920-1921 the government didn't intervene with spending programs. Failed companies were allowed to go bankrupt, and bad debt was eliminated. After a year, the economy took off. The depression of 1929 was met with one government stimulus plan after another. The depression didn't end until after WWII, in 1946.]
Not only do we, as Americans need to cut back, but we need to produce goods and export them to other countries. We need to produce goods in America again. We need to promote jobs here and stop the outsourcing of American jobs overseas.
But in order to do this we need to decrease the size of government and increase personal liberty. We need to completely eradicate the Federal Reserve and Income Tax, and cut government spending by over $1.3 trillion a year. (which is how much the government collects each year from the personal and corporate income taxes). Basically, if we just follow the United States Constitution we can fix our problems.
Imagine the trillion dollars collected each year from the personal income tax no longer in the hands of the government but in everybodys' hands. That's a trillion dollars more people will have and they will spend their money alot more wisely than government does. Most of the time when government spends money it goes for wasteful programs and everytime the government wants to bailout somebody they wind up just bailing out their buddies.
Imagine with no more corporate income tax, how many companies would be coming back to America to open up shop here again. There would be so many companies coming here to open up shop and creating jobs, we would probably need illegal aliens to work them.
We need to bring back personal Liberty. That can be best summed up as you should have the right to keep 100% of the fruit of your labors (no income tax) and spend your money anyway you want. After all, it's your money. But with Liberty comes responsibility. If you get a paycheck on Friday and spend it all foolishly on Saturday, you can't run to the government because you have no money for food for the rest of the week. You instead will have to turn to your family, friends, and religious leaders or charity to help you. Eventually, you will learn to be responsible. In turn society benefits because the more responsible and productive our people are the better off the country will be. And as an added bonus there will be less idiots out there trying to sue McDonalds for making them fat or burning them with "Hot" coffee.
Further Reading, References, & Links
The Creature From Jekyll Island by G. Edward Griffin. You can download a complete audio mp3 of this book at the link: http://www.spielbauer.com/JekyllDownload.htm, burn it on a CD and after 1 hour you will know everything about the federal reserve that the government doesn't want you to know.
Money, Banking, and the Federal Reserve - 42 minute video. Complete history of money and banking. The first 7 minutes or so is reminscient of a high school educational video, but after that it gets very interesting. Watch it here:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYZM58dulPE
Learn more about "Austrian Economics" at the Ludwig Von Mises Institute. Plenty of free mp3 downloads from various economists at http://www.mises.org
You can also Google or YouTube people like: "Ron Paul", "Peter Schiff", and "Jim Rogers", to get an honest evaluation of the economy and how it relates to current events.
Tune into http://freedomwatchonfox.com/ every Wednesday at 2pm Eastern Time to watch Judge Andrew Napolitano's internet program "Freedom Watch" where he always has new guests who explain the real deal within our government.
And sometimes it helps to talk to somebody who already understands these things. If you ever have any questions feel free to visit http://www.ronpaulforums.com. Most people at the forums are familiar with all the facts in this email and can probably help you answer any questions you might have.
And don't forget to read the Constitution and Declaration of Independence every now and then to give yourself a refresher course on Liberty. If you've never read either, then there is no time like the present to start. You'll learn a lot from these truthful and wise documents.
By Mike Mitrosky
The Pursuit of Luck
Yesterday at 8:21pm
Inovasi menjadi kunci kesuksesan pada jaman dimana semuanya ada, semuanya sama, dan persaingan berdarah darah. Dalam pencarian idea dan penelusuran inovasi, kita diharapkan menemukan solusi dan kreasi baru, sementara langkah dan tindakan yang kita pilih tidak mendukung hal itu. Sepenggal tulisan Tom Peters, dari buku lamanya Liberation Management, akan sedikit banyak mencerahi kita. Inovasi adalah hasil dari sebuah kebiasaan, kultur, proses, pilihan tindakan, dan ruang yang kita jalani dalam kehidupan bisnis kita. Tidak semua hal dibawah akan cocok untuk semua orang, tetapi kalau kita tidak mau mencoba melakukan hal yang baru, mengapa kita mengharap hasil yang berbeda dari yang selama ini kita dapatkan? Sedikit kegilaan akan membuat kita tersesat kembali kejalan yang benar. Sedikit keberanian akan membawa kita pada sona baru yang belum kita jelajahi. Selamat menikmati dan mencoba. Salam.
The Pursuit of Luck
Innovation is a low-odds business—and luck sure helps. (It’s jolly well helped me!)
If you believe that success does owe a lot to luck, and that luck in turn owes a lot to getting in the way of unexpected opportunities, you need not throw up your hands in despair. There are strategies you can pursue to get a little nuttiness into your life, and perhaps, then, egg on good luck. (By contrast, if you believe that orderly plans and getting up an hour earlier are the answer, then by all means arise before the rooster and start planning.)
Want to get lucky? Try following these 50 (!) strategies:
1. At-bats. More times at the plate, more hits.
2. Try it. Cut the baloney and get on with something.
3. Ready. Fire. Aim. (Instead of Ready. Aim. Aim. Aim. ...)
4. “If a thing is worth doing, it is worth doing badly.”—G.K. Chesterton. You’ve gotta start somewhere.
5. Read odd stuff. Look anywhere for ideas.
6. Visit odd places. Want to “see” speed? Visit CNN.
7. Make odd friends.
8. Hire odd people. Boring folks, boring ideas.
9. Cultivate odd hobbies. Raise orchids. Race yaks.
10. Work with odd partners.
11. Ask dumb questions. “How come computer commands all come from keyboards?”
Somebody asked that one first; hence, the mouse.
12. Empower. The more folks feel they’re running their own show, the more at-bats, etc.
13. Train without limits. Pick up the tab for training unrelated to work—keep everyone
14. Don’t back away from passion. “Dispassionate innovator” is an oxymoron.
15. Pursue failure. Failure is success’s only launching pad. (The bigger the goof, the better!)
16. Take anti-NIH pills. Don’t let “not invented here” keep you from ripping off nifty ideas.
17. Constantly reorganize. Mix, match, try different combinations to shake things up.
18. Listen to everyone. Ideas come from anywhere.
19. Don’t listen to anyone. Trust your inner ear.
20. Get fired. If you’re not pushing hard enough to get fired, you’re not pushing hard enough.
(More than once is okay.)
21. Nurture intuition. If you can find an interesting market idea that came from a rational plan,
I’ll eat all my hats. (I have quite a collection.)
22. Don’t hang out with “all the rest.” Forget the same tired trade association meetings, talking
with the same tired people about the same tired things.
23. Decentralize. At-bats are proportional to the amount of decentralization.
24. Decentralize again.
25. Smash all functional barriers. Unfettered contact among people from different disciplines is
26. Destroy hierarchies.
27. Open the books. Make everyone a “businessperson,” with access to all the financials.
28. Start an information deluge. The more real-time, unedited information people close to the
action have, the more that “neat stuff” happens.
29. Take sabbaticals.
30. “Repot” yourself every 10 years. (This was the advice of former Stanford Business School
dean Arjay Miller—meaning change careers each decade.)
31. Spend 50 percent of your time with “outsiders.” Distributors and vendors will give you
more ideas in five minutes than another five-hour committee meeting.
32. Spend 50 percent of your “outsider” time with wacko outsiders.
33. Pursue alternative rhythms. Spend a year on a farm, six months working in a factory or
34. Spread confusion in your wake. Keep people off balance, don’t let the ruts get deeper than
they already are.
35. Disorganize. Bureaucracy takes care of itself. The boss should be “chief dis-organizer,”
Quad/Graphics CEO Harry Quadracci told us.
36. “Dis-equilibrate ... Create instability, even chaos.” Good advice to “real leaders” from
Professor Warren Bennis.
37. Stir curiosity. Igniting youthful, dormant curiosity in followers is the lead dog’s top task,
according to Sony chairman Akio Morita.
38. Start a Corporate Traitors’ Hall of Fame. “Renegades” are not enough. You need people
who despise what you stand for.
39. Give out “Culture Scud Awards.” Your best friend is the person who attacks your corporate
culture head-on. Wish her well.
40. Vary your pattern. Eat a different breakfast cereal. Take a different route to work.
41. Take off your coat.
42. Take off your tie.
43. Roll up your sleeves.
44. Take off your shoes.
45. Get out of your office. Tell me, honestly, the last time something inspiring or clever
happened at that big table in your office?!
46. Get rid of your office.
47. Spend a workday each week at home.
48. Nurture peripheral vision. The interesting “stuff” usually is going on beyond the margins of
the professional’s ever-narrowing line of sight.
49. Don’t “help.” Let the people who work for you slip, trip, fall—and grow and learn on their own.
50. Avoid moderation in all things. “Anything worth doing is worth doing to excess,”
according to Edwin Land, Polaroid’s founder.
What is Forex?
If you would go out on a dinner with your friends or family and you mentioned that you were trading on the Forex market most of them wouldn’t know what you were talking about. The worst thing is that most of the Forex traders that join the Forex market don’t know what they are doing. Understanding what Forex is, is the first good step to your success at Forex trading.
The foreign exchange market (Currency, Forex, or FX) is where currency trading takes place. It is where banks and other official institutions facilitate the buying and selling of foreign currencies. Forex transactions typically involve one party purchasing a quantity of one currency in exchange for paying a quantity of another. The foreign exchange market that we see today started evolving during the 1970s when world over countries gradually switched to floating exchange rate from their erstwhile exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system till 1971.
Today, the Forex market is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, corporations, governments, and other institutions. The average daily volume in the global foreign exchange and related markets is continuously growing. Traditional daily turnover was reported to be over US$3.2 trillion in April 2007 by the Bank for International Settlements. Since then, the market has continued to grow. According to Euromoney's annual Forex Poll, volumes grew a further 41% between 2007 and 2008.
Main foreign exchange market turnover, 1988 - 2007, measured in billions of USD.
The purpose of Forex market is to facilitate trade and investment. The need for a foreign exchange market arises because of the presence of multifarious international currencies such as US Dollar, Pound Sterling, Yen, etc., and the need for trading in such currencies. Since you aren’t buying anything physical this kind of trading can be confusing. When buying a currency think of it as buying a part in that particular country’s economy because the currency rate reflects the economical situation of the country when compared to others.
List of most popular currencies on the Forex market
Forex used to be a closed market because only the “big boys” because you needed between 10 and 50 million $ to open an account. But today, with the development of internet, online Forex brokers have the possibility to offer their services to “little” traders. All you need to start is a computer, fast internet connection and information which you can find on this page also.
This enormous market is like the dangerous sea where you can meet lots of sharks and dangerous waters but at the same time it is the only one where two weeks of trading can hypothetically bring you $1,000,000 out of $1,000 of initial investment.
This is certainly hypothetically because a lot of newbie traders deal with their trades as gambling, that surely bring them to having nothing in the end. You should always keep the phrase "be careful!" in your mind. This market would give you its profit possibilities only if you learn the basic things hard and make lots of demo trading.
The statistics is that as much as 95% of traders come to losing their money at Forex, 5% have profit and less than 1% of traders make large fortune at Forex. You shouldn't produce, sell or advertise anything trading at Forex. Your assets are your knowledge, experience and a small amount of cash.
This market is a platform for banks, transnational corporations and individual traders to change the currencies they possess into other ones. This is the spot Forex market. At this market you can trade with up to 1:400 leverage which means that you'll get $400 on your account for each dollar invested. So, you can trade with the $400,000 sum having invested $1,000 onto your account.
Forex is unique among other world markets because in any time of day and night, somewhere in the world, a financial centre is open for business, banks and corporations exchange currency all the time, with a little lower frequency during the weekend.
Why to trade on Forex?
1. There is no commission fee for trading at Forex.
2. There is no intermediary, you can trade directly at Forex.
3. Forex is open 24-hours a day.
4. Nobody can influence the market for a longer period.
5. High liquidity.
6. Free demo accounts, analysis and charts.
7. Small accounts that allow everyone to try out his luck.
Hope this has answered a lot of questions you were asking yourself about Forex and that you can now start trading. Also make sure that you check out other articles on this blog which can help you earn your fortune.
Forex Trading Methods – Fibonacci Trading
The concept of Fibonacci Forex trading is being used by millions of Forex traders all around the world. These numbers forecast the coming oscillation in the Forex charts. Though, at the same time, the prediction made cannot be proclaimed as flawless and straight hitting to the mark, the closeness it gets to is quite amazing. The Fibonacci levels are very elementary and fundamental concepts which need to be grasped before delving into the risky environment of Forex trading.
Who was Fibonacci?
Leonardo was born in Pisa, Italy in about 1170. His father Guglielmo was nicknamed Bonaccio ("good natured" or "simple"). Leonardo's mother, Alessandra, died when he was nine years old. Leonardo was posthumously given the nickname Fibonacci (derived from filius Bonacci, meaning son of Bonaccio).
Guglielmo directed a trading post (by some accounts he was the consultant for Pisa) in Bugia, a port east of Algiers in the Almohad dynasty's sultanate in North Africa. As a young boy, Leonardo traveled there to help him. This is where he learned about the Hindu-Arabic numeral system.
Recognizing that arithmetic with Hindu-Arabic numerals is simpler and more efficient than with Roman numerals, Fibonacci traveled throughout the Mediterranean world to study under the leading Arab mathematicians of the time. Leonardo returned from his travels around 1200. In 1202, at age 32, he published what he had learned in Liber Abaci (Book of Abacus or Book of Calculation), and thereby introduced Hindu-Arabic numerals to Europe.
In the Liber Abaci, Fibonacci introduces the so-called modus Indorum (method of the Indians), today known as Arabic numerals. The book advocated numeration with the digits 0–9 and place value. The book showed the practical importance of the new numeral system, using lattice multiplication and Egyptian fractions, by applying it to commercial bookkeeping, conversion of weights and measures, the calculation of interest, money-changing, and other applications. The book was well received throughout educated Europe and had a profound impact on European thought.
Liber Abaci also posed, and solved, a problem involving the growth of a hypothetical population of rabbits based on idealized assumptions. The solution, generation by generation, was a sequence of numbers later known as Fibonacci numbers. The number sequence was known to Indian mathematicians as early as the 6th century, but it was Fibonacci's Liber Abaci that introduced it to the West.
Contribution of Fibonacci in the number theory is one of the most important incorporations in the domain of arithmetic and calculations. He conferred the following benefits:
Later it was discovered that the Fibonacci numbers and the respective series were not only limited to the arithmetic but it also played a pivotal role in economics, commerce and trading sectors too.
In the Fibonacci sequence of numbers, each number is the sum of the previous two numbers, starting with 0 and 1. Thus the sequence begins 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610 etc. The higher up in the sequence, the closer two consecutive "Fibonacci numbers" of the sequence divided by each other will approach the golden ratio (approximately 1 : 1.618 or 0.618 : 1). In mathematical terms, the sequence Fn of Fibonacci numbers is defined by the recurrence relation Fn=Fn-1 + Fn-2 with seed values F0=0 and F1=1.
The Golden ratio
Later, more calculations were made and it became evident that the sequence also follows a certain fixed ration. For example, when the particular number was in ratio with its just next higher number in the sequence, the value came out to be 0.618 while on the other hand, if the number was in ratio with the previous lower number, the ratio came out to be 1.618. Eventually, these two ratio values were known as the Golden mean or the Golden ratio. It was also later realized that the application of the Golden ratio and the Fibonacci numbers in the technical analysis was very beneficial as it also reflected the human behavior and human nature. This is because the Fibonacci numbers and the golden ratio are applicable to everything from architecture to human body, music, biology and art. Most of the Forex traders who have been adopting this technique feel that the entire concept is applicable because trading is related to both science and art. They believe that after a lot of meticulous and close scrutiny of the Forex market, it becomes clear that both the price movements and patterns of human behavior are interlinked and the Fibonacci technique have relations to both the patterns.
Risk and greed tolerance are applicable to the Forex trade and guide the outputs of the trade. Most of the traders, whether long term or short term undergo the risking and greed tolerance levels. In this case, if an average it calculated, it becomes evident that what the current perspectives of the traders are. In the same manner, the Fibonacci sequence reveals through the cost of the pricing instruments that how many traders have reached or are reaching the tolerance levels.
With the application of the Fibonacci techniques, it also becomes easier to predict the various turning points which would crop up in the Forex trading.
How can we use the Fibonacci numbers in Forex trading?
Technical analysis is one of the most pivotal tools for forecasting the different twists and turns of the Forex market. Resistance and support levels in the bar charts of the Forex trading are the most important components which have to be scrutinized through the technical analysis. These levels are very important to know regarding the entry and exit spots of the Forex market. For this respective utility, the Forex traders are also using the "retracement" levels involving the Fibonacci percentages. 38.2% and 62.8% are the two most important retracement levels in the Fibonacci percentages.
By using the Fibonacci numbers in the charts, you can find more supports and resistances. It will be a big help to choose the right direction and avoid entering to a wrong trade. To use the Fibonacci numbers in the charts, you have to find the top and the bottom of the previous trend. When the previous trend has been a downtrend, you draw the Fibonacci levels from top to the bottom and extend the lines in the way that they cover the next completing trend and when the previous trend has been an uptrend, you draw the Fibonacci levels from the bottom to the top and extend the lines in the way that they cover the next completing trend.
You have to wait for the trend to become completed: You cannot draw the Fibonacci levels while the trend is not completed. When you cannot find a completed trend in a time frame, you have to look for one in the smaller or bigger time frames in the same currency pair or stock.
The Fibonacci Method is one of the most essential aspects of Forex trading. It basically includes indicators, charting and instrumental spotting patterns. The main strategies which are employed under the utility for the funds traded through exchanges, stock indices and different stocks indicated in the returns.
Furthermore, the Elliot wave concept is used, which includes the classic applications and principles. The main idea behind using the Fibonacci numbers is to predict as a potential tool in the trading system is to predict and calculate the important and pivotal points in the Forex markets which might be indispensable in causing sudden twists and turns, analyze the business growths and other economical recycles which might occur. At the same time, these Fibonacci methods are also pivotal in predicting the profitable and benefiting aspects of the interest rate and their movements.
Fibonacci Retracement - Zero percent is the considered as the peak of the crest of the move while hundred percent is considered as the bottom most point of the trough of the move. The trading signals are revealed by the Fibonacci retracement zones or levels which are calculated at 23.6%, 38.2% and 50%. Since it's mostly seen that history is continuously repeated when it comes to the Forex market, the Fibonacci methods prove be to be very applicable over here. Thus, with these shapes, the Forex traders are not only able to predict the entire course of the market, they also end up preventing worthless investments.
Fibonacci Equations - Fibonacci equations, by definition, are mathematical applications wherein every term of the equation is the sum of its preceding two numbers. The execution of this process, also a property of recursion, is accomplished by initiating the values of the first and second terms as 0 and 1 respectively. The remaining values can be 'recursively' quantified henceforth. Therefore, the calculated sequence processes as 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34 and so on.
Fibonacci Extensions - Fibonacci extensions are furthered developments in Fibonacci fundamentals. These have been extensively tapped by traders and investors in deducing out future support and resistance levels of a particular trend. These levels are plied beyond the standardized 100% level, offering traders to seek areas that yield optimum profits and benefits. 161.8%, 261.8% and 423.6% are perhaps the most well known extension levels in this context.
The only thing we know is that Fibonacci numbers work in everything from the microscopic materials like DNA molecule to the distance between our eyes, ears, hands, even the distance of the planets in the solar system and the way they move in the space, even the distance and pathway of the stars in the universe and finally in the currencies’ prices and the way they move up and down. Fibonacci numbers can be found anywhere in the world.
As you see the effect that they have on the market is not negligible and in fact is highly considerable. I know this question is formed in your mind that why they have such a big effect on the market. Why the prices become stopped sometimes for several days below or above the Fibonacci levels? (Of course if you use the Fibonacci levels in the bigger time frames like weekly and monthly charts, you will see that sometimes the price becomes stopped by one of the Fibonacci levels for several weeks.) The answer of this question has no effect on our trading. Whether you know the reason or not, you can use the Fibonacci levels in your trades.
Want to make the most of your Forex trading?
Forex Robot can help your trading grow.
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Why Use Forex Robot
Best Forex Robot Review
Nowadays, Forex Robots have been center of discussion and controversy, people are always stuck in the same questions: Do they really work? How can a robot make a man’s job? Will a robot be able to do a human job as well as we do?. In most areas the answer could be, no, robots can’t run a company, robots can’t interact well with people, can’t sing, cook, act or take decisions, among other things, but what robots can do, and probably even better than humans, is statistics and mathematics, and that’s what Forex market is all about.
The movements on this market are represented in charts and digits, and that’s what people analyze in order to make a good trade, they base their judgment, about buying or selling, on what happened and what could happen. This is also called trend following. This is more or less what an investor does when trading on Forex market: he chooses a chart to analyze, for example USD/EUR currency exchange chart, follows its trend, draw conclusions from it and based on his judgment makes a trade at an specific time in which he thinks he could buy that currency on its lowest price, then he redo the process, but this time, trying to sell the currency he just bought at a higher price at which he bought it to generate a profit.
That’s what a Forex market investor would basically do when trading, but obviously, influenced by his experience. Now, the question is: What would a robot do?, a robot would do the same analysis that the Forex market investor did, it would gather all the chart information and all the numbers, it would follow the trends and it would do the trade, but with some really important differences: it would do it faster, it would do it more accurately, but most important, it would do it based merely on numbers, not on emotions or guesses of what could happen, just numbers.
People get so frustrated when they buy a robot just because they see a loss in their accounts, let me tell you something, if you’re one of these persons, you are just looking it in a wrong way, if you think Forex market can be beaten you couldn’t be more wrong. Forex market along with the Stock market are the most volatile and unpredictable markets in the whole world, there’s no mathematic function nor theory that defines their behavior, this is because these markets behavior is based on what people think, and nobody could ever predict what somebody will think or do, and so no one can ever predict Forex and Stock market behaviors.
The principal rule to know about this market is that you’ll lose money, you can win a lot of money but there will always be a loss attached to it, it may not be as high as the profit but it will exist, and thats what you have to bear in mind.
Returning to the first idea, not even the most successful Forex market investor can trade in this market without losing, and nor robots can. So, considering robots as a way of trading and investing on this market isn’t a bad idea, on the contrary, it may be very helpful, as robots can be trading all they long and we can’t, they can also be configured to our needs, and maybe robots can’t do the job as well as we can but they can certainly bring us some decent and constant profits, and obviously some losses.
Forex robots can be used in so many ways, they can be used as a guide, as an income generator and also as a teacher, there are lots of things that people can learn from these robots. Get a Forex Robot, not just any robot, a really good one.
Finding the Best Forex Robot
Best Forex Robot Review
If you are thinking of buying Forex Robot then you are probably already aware of the potential money making opportunities of the forex market. For the small investor in these difficult times, developing additional, or multiple, income streams would seem to be a wise decision. For small investors beginning to explore the forex market a forex trading program can also be a great help in learning to understand how the market works. The fact is forex market trends are highly complex by their very nature. Successful traders concentrate on longer term trends and accept that there can be short term reversals of fortune The trouble is for less experienced traders, the emotional responses can cloud your judgement causing you to deal badly with such reversals, or hold on longer than you intended when you see things going your way, only to lose your gains at the last minute.
A Forex Robot has no such emotions and will only react according to your intentions when establishing the trade. This is one of the key benefits for people trading on Forex from home. A second major benefit is the complexity of the algorithms that the Forex Robot uses to analyse the markets and the speed with which it calculates them. Third is the ease with which forex trading software can gather together all of the information you need in order to decide on your trades, and remember, Forex is a 24 hour market. For those of you who are just beginning to explore the forex market to decide whether to invest your time and money, a Forex Robot may be the perfect way to help you decide.
To find the best forex robot is indeed a daunting task as there are many options available online. Forex robot is nothing but an automated forex trading software that can work wonders in helping you transact intelligently and earn large sum of money. Always choose forex robot that can best meet your personal requirements. Just keep on doing research until you come to know about several forex robots and then you should find out the one that can work best for you. Look for forex robots that have been tested and are known to bring in good results. Seek information on varied forex robots and compare them on certain parameters such as the minimum capital required to use forex robot, the degree of risk involved, the level of profits expected, which forex indicators the robot take into consideration when making the next move and other important aspects.
Forex Robot Important Criteria
Most vendors will sell you their forex robot based on successful backtesting. Backtesting is important as it shows us that the robot can potentially profit on live trading. However, you shouldn't just focus on backtested result and it does not guarantee a successful forward trading. Why? Because the backtester can ignore market conditions. In live trading, you might see the gap in price during a news announcement and market spikes. You may also see the big spread between bids and ask prices of the currency pairs which may affect your trade due to excess slippage.
Forward Live Trading
The absolute best proof is live trading. Not many robot vendor uses live trading to support their claim that their robot is the real thing. By looking at the live trading account, you can see how accurately is the backtested report of that robot.
No matter how well a forex robot seems to be live trading or backtesting, we can never know what the future result will be. Hence, we must employ adequate safeguards - sound money management rules. This is the key to successful long-term wealth building via forex trading.
Drawdown represents the total percentage loss experienced by a strategy before it starts winning again and drives the investment balance back up. Taking drawdown into consideration, you can judge just how risky these automated strategies are. You will see some out there that have a 40% or even higher drawdown in their reports. With those kinds of odds, you better have one heck of a strategy to back up that high of a risk level. A good robot should be below 15% drawdown, which means you have an expert advisor backed by a rock solid strategy that would take an absolute miracle to bankrupt an account.
Focus on these criteria when making your decision to purchase forex robot.
Forex Robot For Consistent Profit
DON'T Buy Simulations!
Most forex robots are rubbish and claim to be able to make big money but you look at the risk warning on the track record and see the words in "hindsight" and "simulated" Of course, this is easy and anyone can make up a track record knowing all the facts. You have to think to yourself if the robot works, why hasn't the vendor traded it? By discounting all the forex robot which don't have long term results in real time, you are getting rid of well over 90% of them.
Get REAL TIME Results!
Now lets look at what you need to look for to find a good one. You won't be surprised that the first thing to look for is a real track record over several years that has been independently evaluated. Of course past results never indicate future profits - but it gives you confidence in the system and at least the logic is soundly based.
Understand The SYSTEM!
If you want to follow a system (even if it's made money in the past) you need to how it generates its trading signals, so you can have confidence in it. If you don't have confidence, you will never be able to execute the signals as their generated and if you don't do this, you don't have a system at all! So unless the logic is revealed to you and you agree with it, don't trade the system.
The automated robot with the fake track records say you can make a 100k a year and trade with $100 but this is fantasy, not reality. In the real world, this is what you should expect from the best forex trading systems:
* Gains of between 30 - 100% per annum
* Losing Periods of a few weeks to a few months
* Losses of between 20 - 50% of your equity at some point
Forex Robot Investment
Best Forex Robot Review
Forex Robot Software is now relatively inexpensive, in fact much cheaper than the losses on a single trade can be. Most programs have the ability for you to practise in real time without exposing yourself financially. So that when you have learnt how it works you can go live with confidence. For many, the only way to find out if these programs work is to try them. Many come with a 60-day - 100% satisfaction guarantee, so, investing in a Forex Robot Software could be a wise investment. The forex markets are completely accessible to the smaller investor working from home. Access is easily available via the Internet and the stake required is very modest. Add to that the fact that while your financial risk is limited to the amount you wish to trade, the amount of profit you could make is unlimited. This is because in forex trading your gains are effectively multiplied by 100, so a 0.5% gain from one currency to another results in a 50% gain on your investment.
Forex Trading Software has become so affordable for the small home trader that it is an investment many of us can now make. And, the advanced functionality of these programs means that they can also help to increase our understanding of this complex but highly lucrative market. There are plenty of forex softwares and system to choose from, the good ones are not hard to find. There are many great information on the internet, visit forums and other forex trading websites to see what people are saying about the different softwares that are available. Take your time and shop around and you will find an automated forex robot that's just right for you in terms of risk to reward and you are then all set, to enjoy long term currency trading success with it. Good Luck!
5 Advantages Of Forex Global Trading
As we all know, this subject is something that we could all use a little education on no matter who you are.
The best place to trade FOREX is through the internet. There are masses of advantages of FOREX global trading. Here are the reasons why it is better to trade online
1. The internet is a protected and convenient. You can trade whenever and anywhere online by loging in website of FOREX trading.
2. The internet allows you to do FOREX global trading in real time. This means you will always be updated so you can know about the changes in just minutes or even seconds. You can also download software on the internet that simulates the market and gives you simulated money to enhance your strategies.
3. FOREX global trading can give you so many other payback. It is more convenient than other methods in trading FOREX. All you've to do is just open the software and you can begin to trade immediately. Or even better, you can just login into your account in FOREX website and start trading instantly. You can check all your preceding transactions, add money into your account and begin trading. You can do everything in just one account.
4. Sometimes, you can even get up-to date information about FOREX trading on the internet and this gives you competitive advantage if you know how to use the information successfully.
We have had a lot of fun during the first portion of this article and hopefully you feel as though you have a firm grasp on the topic.
5. Online trading increases your chances on winning. It is sensible to have two FOREX accounts. Use one for demo account to coach and learn new strategies in the FOREX market and use the real accounts for the other one. This is beneficial from a novice FOREX merchant to intermediate FOREX merchant. Consider that FOREX trading is a continuing learning, even after you polished a course on FOREX trading, you will still have to learn the real market.
There are so many payback in FOREX global trading. That is why more and more people are trading their currencies online.
It is little things, such as this, that may aid you in your search. So, sit down and decide which avenue would be best for you to take.
Dangers Of Forex Trading
There are dangers in FOREX trading if you used the wrong tools and wrong knowledge. The solution for this is to open a mini account first to see whether you're really suitable to play FOREX. You can open mini accounts for just $50. If you find that it is not suitable, you can leave the market. All you've to lose is just $50. If it is suitable, you can win not only $50 but $100 as well.
FOREX is very volatile and risky and you need the right tools, strategies and knowledge to increase your probabilities of winning substantially. In other words, there will be lots of dangers in FOREX trading if you did not use the right tools and knowledge. This is whether online FOREX trading came in.
Let's look at the benefit of trading FOREX online. Accessibility is the first advantage. You're able to trade FOREX 24 hours a day. Transactions can be effortlessly handled through websites planned for this tenacity.
Another vast benefit you can get is there is no commission fee. This means you can cut down transaction expenses with online trading. Other market such as share market needs brokerage fees, the FOREX market is a worldwide inter-bank. Trades can be made between the buyer and sellers in any moment.
When choosing a online FOREX trading, look for the platform that has the most competitive spreads. Currencies are generally traded in pairs of ask bid price. For example of AUS/USD 1.3345/1.3350, the FOREX estimate here means you can buy 1 Aussie money with 1.3350 USD or retail 1 Aussie 1.3345, and the spread is (1.3350 - 1.3345) which equals to 0.0005 and equivalent to 5 pips. FOREX platforms regularly do not charge commissions on investors' trades because they are making money from the spreads. So, it is better if the platform offers more competitive spreads.
Another danger of FOREX trading is some platforms have high spreads and this will expand your trading expenses. Also, some online FOREX trading platform has concealed expenses. So, select tenderly which online platform you want to go before investing your money there.
Your Must-Know Guide To Choose A Genuine Online Trading Forex
The point of this article is to help you to the next level and show you what this amazing subject has to offer.
You can get tons of online trading FOREX on the Internet but which one is the truly genuine online trading FOREX? Investing your money on the dishonest online trading FOREX and your hard earned money will be a sunk cost. They are a lot of frauds on internet these years and we must be above shrewd when selecting an online trading FOREX.
Once you're convinced that it is a genuine online trading FOREX, you must evaluate how good are their offer. Do they have unknown expenses? Do they have experts to help you? Are they giving you the techniques and strategies of trading FOREX online for free? These are all the important questions you want to ask manually before selecting a great and genuine online trading FOREX. If workable, find a genuine online trading platform that you can immediately register, deposit and begin trading
If workable, find an online FOREX trading where you do not have to download any soft wares. Soft wares will take you time to download and you will have to consume more time learning its functions. Find an online FOREX which will bestow you with sufficient tools once you're registered. You also need to check whether they have any unknown expenses. Look whether there is any commission charged on trading and on your profit withdrawals. Find a FOREX trading platform which has a low competitive spreads.
In the beginning of this article, we went over the basics. Now, we will look at this topic a little more in-depth.
Select your FOREX platform prudently or you'll exhaust your money and time. Some online trading FOREX have unknown expenses that are totally costly if you're not shrewd. You'll even take days to learn about their functions if you choose a wrong online trading FOREX. You need to know the features of genuine online trading FOREX before putting your money inside.
Seeing is believing, but sometimes we cant all experience every subject in life. This article hopes to make up for that by providing you with a valuable resource of information on this topic.
Maccabi Terburuk di Liga Champions
Fajar Pratama - detiksport
Tel Aviv - Dari enam laga di fase grup, Maccabi Haifa gagal mendulang gol alih-alih poin. Klub asal Israel itu pun kini menjadi tim terburuk dalam sepanjang sejarah putaran final Liga Champions.
Catatan yang cukup jelek tersebut sebenarnya sudah muncul tanda-tandanya sejak matchday pertama saat Maccabi digelontor tim tamu, Bayern Munich 0-3 di depan publik Ramat Gan Stadium. Peruntungan mereka lantas tidak juga berbenah saat melawat ke Bordeaux dan ke Juventus yang sama-sama berakhir dengan skor 0-1.
Skor kekalahan serupa juga masih saja menggelayuti Maccabi di paruh kedua fase grup saat melawan FC Hollywood dan Bianconeri. Dan kekalahan keenam tim tersebut dihadirkan oleh Bordeaux pada Rabu (9/12/2009) dinihari tadi, dengan skor yang masih 0-1.
Hasil itu membuat Maccabi berhak menyandang sebagai tim dengan penampilan terburuk di Liga Champions. Sepanjang sejarah kompetisi terakbar di benua Eropa tersebut sejak tahun 1955, belum pernah ada tim yang pernah menelan enam kali kelahan dengan tanpa memasukkan satu pun gol di fase grup.
Ini merupakan musim kedua Maccabi di fase grup di Liga Champions. Debut mereka di putaran final adalah pada tahun 2002, di mana Maccabi menjadi tim Israel pertama yang lolos dari babak awal kualifikasi.
( din / nar )
Dari Stanley Matthews Sampai Messi
Rossi Finza Noor - detiksport
Jakarta - Sejak pertama kali diadakan tahun 1956, Ballon d'Or telah diberikan kepada banyak pemain. Dari mulai Stanley Matthews, sampai yang teranyar adalah Lionel Messi.
Matthews adalah orang Inggris pertama, atau pesepakbola Eropa pertama, yang memenangi gelar Pemain Terbaik Eropa itu. "Dia adalah orang yang mengajarkan bagaimana seharusnya sepak bola dimainkan," ujar Pele, menggambarkan seperti apa seorang Stanley Matthews.
Selepas Matthews, ada banyak nama-nama besar yang juga pernah meraih gelar tersebut. Sebut saja Alfredo di Stefano, Johan Cruyff, Michel Platini dan Marco van Basten.
Cruyff, Platini dan Van Basten adalah nama-nama yang paling sering meraih gelar ini. Ketiga legenda itu sama-sama mendapatkan tiga gelar Ballon d'Or.
Sebelumnya, gelar ini hanya ditujukan untuk pemain-pemain asal Eropa saja. Tetapi sejak 1995 terjadi perubahan peraturan. Para pemain yang bukan berasal dari Eropa juga bisa mendapatkan gelar ini, asalkan mereka bermain di salah satu klub Eropa.
Messi yang mendapatkannya tahun ini merupakan pemain berkewarganegaraan Argentina pertama yang meraih gelar tersebut. Sebenarnya Di Stefano yang meraih Ballon d'Or pada 1957 juga adalah orang Argentina. Namun kala itu ia sudah pindah kewarganegaraan menjadi orang Spanyol.
Di luar Messi, ada empat nama pemain asal Amerika Latin lainnya yang menjadi Pemain Terbaik Eropa. Mereka adalah Ronaldo, Rivaldo, Ronaldinho dan Kaka. Keempatnya berasal dari Brasil.
Daftar Lengkap Pemanang Ballon d'Or
1956 - Stanley Matthews (Inggris)
1957 - Alfredo di Stefano (Spanyol)
1958 - Raymond Kopa (Prancis)
1959 - Di Stefano
1960 - Luis Suarez (Spanyol)
1961 - Omar Sivori (Italia)
1962 - Josef Masopust (Cekoslovakia)
1963 - Lev Yashin (Uni Soviet)
1964 - Denis Law (Skotlandia)
1965 - Eusebio (Portugal)
1966 - Bobby Charlton (Inggris)
1967 - Florian Albert (Hongaria)
1968 - George Best (Irlandia Utara)
1969 - Gianni Rivera (Italia)
1970 - Gerd Mueller (Jerman Barat)
1971 - Johan Cruyff (Belanda)
1972 - Franz Beckenbauer (Jerman Barat)
1973 - Cruyff
1974 - Cruyff
1975 - Oleg Blokhin (Uni Soviet)
1976 - Beckenbauer
1977 - Allan Simonsen (Denmark)
1978 - Kevin Keegan (Inggris)
1979 - Keegan
1980 - Karl-Heinz Rummenigge (Jerman Barat)
1981 - Rummenigge
1982 - Paolo Rossi (Italia)
1983 - Michel Platini (Prancis)
1984 - Platini
1985 - Platini
1986 - Igor Belanov (Uni Soviet)
1987 - Ruud Gullit (Belanda)
1988 - Marco van Basten (Belanda)
1989 - Van Basten
1990 - Lothar Matthaeus (Jerman)
1991 - Jean-Pierre Papin (Prancis)
1992 - Van Basten
1993 - Roberto Baggio (Italia)
1994 - Hristo Stoichkov (Bulgaria)
1995 - George Weah (Liberia)
1996 - Matthias Sammer (Jerman)
1997 - Ronaldo (Brasil)
1998 - Zinedine Zidane (Prancis)
1999 - Rivaldo (Brasil)
2000 - Luis Figo (Portugal)
2001 - Michael Owen (Inggris)
2002 - Ronaldo
2003 - Pavel Nedved (Republik Ceko)
2004 - Andriy Shevchenko (Ukraina)
2005 - Ronaldinho (Brasil)
2006 - Fabio Cannavaro (Italia)
2007 - Kaka (Brasil)
2008 - Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal)
2009 - Lionel Messi (Argentina)